The upcoming World Cup final between Spain and Argentina could play a significant role in determining the recipient of the 2026 Ballon d’Or award. While players will be focused on lifting the trophy, the match’s outcome may influence who ultimately claims the individual honour.
The upcoming World Cup final between Spain and Argentina could play a significant role in determining the recipient of the 2026 Ballon d’Or award. While players will be focused on lifting the trophy, the match’s outcome may influence who ultimately claims the individual honour.
The 2026 race for the Ballon d’Or is considered to be a tight contest with multiple contenders. Historically, winning a major continental or international trophy, such as the UEFA Champions League, World Cup, European Championship, or Copa America, has often preceded a Ballon d’Or win. Only four of the last 19 Ballon d’Or awards went to players who did not secure one of these major titles in the same year, with Lionel Messi accounting for three of those instances (2010, 2012, 2019) and Cristiano Ronaldo for one (2013).
Ballon d’Or contenders and their World Cup impact
Lionel Messi, at 39, is aiming for a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or. He has been a key figure for Argentina, guiding them to a second consecutive World Cup final with eight goals and four assists, leading the Golden Boot race. A victory in the final would make him the first player to captain his nation to back-to-back World Cup triumphs.
Lamine Yamal, a winger for Spain, is also a strong candidate. While his individual statistics at the World Cup—one goal and no assists in seven games—do not reflect his performance when Spain won Euro 2024, he has been an integral part of the Spanish team that reached their first World Cup final since their 2010 victory. Yamal had an impressive season for Barcelona, scoring 24 goals and providing 18 assists in 45 games, helping the club win La Liga.
Other notable players who have had strong seasons but face challenges for the Ballon d’Or include Harry Kane, Erling Haaland, and Kylian Mbappe. Kane scored 61 goals in 51 games across all club competitions for Bayern Munich, securing a league and cup double. However, defeats in the Champions League semi-finals with his club and the World Cup semi-finals with England could affect his chances. Kane previously stated, “I could score 100 goals this season, but if I don’t win the Champions League or the World Cup, I’m probably not going to win the Ballon d’Or.”
Michael Olise, Kane’s Bayern teammate, had a strong second season. He also provided five assists at the World Cup, the most in the tournament, but England’s semi-final defeat to Spain may impact his standing.
Kylian Mbappe has scored eight goals in the current World Cup and topped the scoring charts in both La Liga and the Champions League. Despite being a consistent goalscorer for eight years, a trophyless season with Real Madrid and France’s World Cup exit make a Ballon d’Or win unlikely this year.
Erling Haaland won the Premier League Golden Boot for the third time in four seasons and secured an FA Cup and Carabao Cup double. He scored seven goals in Norway’s first World Cup appearance in 28 years.
Ousmane Dembele, the current Ballon d’Or holder, won Ligue 1 and the Champions League for the second consecutive season. Despite injuries, his World Cup performance of five goals and two assists has boosted his chances. His Paris St-Germain teammate, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, also performed well in the Champions League with 10 goals and seven assists, but his nation, Georgia, did not qualify for the World Cup.
Jude Bellingham‘s efforts helped England reach the World Cup semi-finals, but an injury-affected season and lack of silverware likely rule him out. Declan Rice, a key player for Arsenal, who won the Premier League and narrowly missed out on the Champions League, is expected to be in the top-10 mix.
Ballon d’Or rules and ceremony details
The Ballon d’Or has not had geographic restrictions since 2007, meaning any professional footballer worldwide is eligible to win, regardless of whether they play for a European club. Organisers have confirmed that players based outside of Europe, such as those in Major League Soccer (like Messi) or the Saudi Pro League (like Ronaldo), can legally claim the award.
The 70th Ballon d’Or ceremony is scheduled for Monday, October 26, 2026. For the first time, the gala will be hosted in London, moving from its traditional location in Paris, as a tribute to Sir Stanley Matthews, who won the inaugural award decades ago.
Messi’s club form with Inter Miami, where he led them to MLS Cup glory last season, has further strengthened his overall case for the Ballon d’Or. He first won the award in 2009 and most recently in 2023.
Cristiano Ronaldo, at 41, scored three goals without an assist before Portugal were eliminated by Spain in the round of 16 of the World Cup.
Messi’s influence in the World Cup has made him a significant favourite to win what would be his ninth Ballon d’Or, with Yamal also a strong contender after guiding Spain to the final.
The 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony will be held in London on October 26, 2026.
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Source: bbc.com
